drunken CFB week 8

[drunkguy]

Last week:

4-3 +0.7 units

Season to date:

26-23 +2.3 units

Wake Forest -10 Duke

Wake was one of the early hot team after two early upsets, but have fallen off the radar. They have remained a decent team, losing close games to Purdue and Virginia, and got beat by 17 by a very decen Ga Tech team. Duke has struggled, getting beat by Northwestern and blown out by FSU, UVA<. Tought laying 10 with Wake, especially with a look-ahead to FSU, but think Deacons flex their muscles here in a double digit win.


Michigan St +6 Minnesota

Michigan St +208 (0.5 unit)

Minnesota's D was exposed in the 4th quarter last week vs Michigan. They gave up nearly 400 yards in the air to Michigan. Michigan St and QB Smoker will look to bring this thing to the air. Mentally, Minnesota may not be all there after giving up a huge lead in the loss last week. Minnesota needs to run the ball (over 400 yds on the ground last week), but Mich St D may be toughest they've seen. Missed the +7 on this game, but will keep an eye on it and add later if possible.

California +4 UCLA

UCLA almost beaten by a weak Arizona team last week. Cal has shown flashes of brilliance this season and should be able to put it together after an extra week of rest. UCLA is not a strong team, so will take the points with the motivated dog.

Texas -16 Iowa St

Iowa St has been blown out 3 of the last 4 games (19, 46, and 31 point losses). Texas can run up the points and Iowa St will have little ability to stop them. Texas underrated due to being blown out last week against what is hands down looking like the number one team in the country, certainly the best defenxe in the country. Frustrated Longhorns will have someone to take it out on this week.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding:

Miami OH -16 Ball St

Miami OH offense has been doing just fine, while Ball defense has not. Miami averaging 46 points over past five, and only loss coming to a highly competitive Iowa team. Ball St had bye last week, but Miami was able to unload in a sleeper against Buffalo. Miami off that easy win and next game at Kent, should be in a good spot to take advatage of Ball. Tough to lay the heavy chalk against a home conference team off a bye week, but will go with the much better team in what should be a blowout.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding:

Texas Tech +3 Oklahoma St

Two good offenses matching up here, but think Tech is stronger and pulls it out. OSU did beat Kansas St last week, but somewhat misleading when you look at the final stats. I look for a shootout here and will go with the more explosive offense getting points.

Boise St -23 SMU

SME offense very weak (2nd last in NCAA) and they will be lucky to score period here. Line somewhat depressed since Boise has had a hard time covering the spread this year and a lot of the public action has moved off them. This will be a blowout and Boise should win by at least 28.

Arizona St -5.5 North Carolina

Arizona St has better offense, better defense. QB Walters looked good last week and facing a pathetic D that he can exploit. UNC did win this watchup in Tempe last year, but with the help of 5 ASU turnovers. Don't expect the same help this year.

 

[drunkguy]

Excellent week this week. Recap:

Wake Forest -10 Duke WIN
Michigan St +6 Minnesota WIN
Michigan St +208 (0.5 unit) WIN
California +4 UCLA WIN
Texas -16 Iowa St WIN
Miami OH -16 Ball St WIN
Texas Tech +3 Oklahoma St WIN
Boise St -23 SMU WIN
Arizona St -5.5 North Carolina LOSE

This week:

8-1 +6.91 units

Season to date:

34-24 +9.21 units

 

[drunkguy]

Adding:

Kansas +21 Kansas St

I've been waiting all week to grab this one at 21. This Jayhawks team is much improved and has confidence this year. Kansas St can put up the points, but their defense has come down a notch since last year, and Kansas can put up some points of their own. Three TDs is a lot to give to Kansas and I will take the points.